Rewiring The State: A Moment Of Opportunity for The Future Of Skills

Long-time observers of the UK skills system are prone to wearily observing that it is fragmented, complex and a victim of policy inconsistency over time. These observations are not without merit. Policy cycles are short, and innovation cycles can be too. As a result, the system does not always fulfil its potential to meet the needs of learners, employers and communities.

Strategic Policy Context

As we survey the landscape with a new Government in place, it is nonetheless a moment of opportunity if we are collectively willing to act systemically. The first driver of opportunity comes from the strategic policy context. The Government’s Rewiring the State Cabinet statement, published in July, effectively aims to reverse the current of the state’s circuitry.

The vision is that greater power should be local by default. This is a fundamental change affecting Mayoral Strategic Authorities with the formal powers and resources over post-16 skills they will acquire. This will enable greater alignment between local growth strategies, community development, skills and employment.

Meanwhile, the interim report of the Milburn Review emphasised the need for whole-system change in response to the escalating challenge of youth and young adult unemployment.

In media interviews since the publication of the report, Alan Milburn has gone further, advocating the wholesale transfer of resources for supporting NEETs to mayors. Two dynamics are at play: power and resources being pushed to a more regional level, alongside a drive for the state to act systemically and upstream of problems rather than reactively through silos. Of course, the Milburn analysis does not apply only to youth unemployment. It has relevance across the whole skills and employment system and beyond into health and social security.

Third Source Of Disruption and Opportunity

A policy window is opening, but there is a third source of disruption and opportunity: the pace of technological development in generative AI.

It is not the intention here to present either a boosterish or doom-laden account. Rather, it is to observe evidence that we are starting to see sectors where deep AI penetration is affecting the nature of work and beginning to disrupt labour markets, including at entry level. This should not be overstated, but it is likely to be real, and could diffuse to other sectors over time.

We do not need to look to frontier AI models or indulge in speculation about superintelligence and existential risk to understand that today’s AI will change many occupations over the next few years. There will be new jobs, changed jobs and some jobs that disappear. Whatever the aggregate impact, or geographical or sectoral footprint, these shifts are likely to require more frequent upskilling and reskilling throughout people’s working lives. One thing we know from past waves of technological change is that they re-shape labour markets and AI has the potential to do so more rapidly than, say, the first wave of information technology.

This may seem more of a challenge than an opportunity. Besides understanding the need to adapt, we can’t know which way things will go. Nonetheless, combined with devolution and the stronger systemic, upstream approach to public policy reflected in the Milburn Review, AI can augment existing vocational technologies to make the skills and employment system even more personalised, visible, navigable and accessible for learners and employers alike. Indeed, it is already doing so.

Data

Three factors are interacting to make AI-enabled vocational technology feasible. First, there is data. We are now able to gather and analyse skills and labour market intelligence in new ways. A Ufi VocTech Trust-supported project in Cornwall and Lincolnshire, the Flourish platform developed by the Institute for the Future of Work, is doing just that to open opportunities in green jobs.

Local Platforms bringing together learners, providers and employers

Second, there are local platforms that bring together learners, providers and employers. This is exactly what Belfast City Council is doing to create better employment pathways, increasingly involving employers through the “Belfast Promise”. And the King’s Trust is establishing their MyKT platform to make their services more accessible and, therefore, increase scale, reach and progression.

Digital Badges

Third, there are digital badges, which are opening new possibilities for coherent local skills and employment infrastructure. In Bradford, Cambridgeshire and Belfast, digital badges are being used to validate learning and skills within “Cities of Learning”. Sector bodies are already embracing digital skills wallets and passports. UK Hospitality’s Skills Passport is perhaps the most established and successful example.

Wallets and Badges

Wallets and badges make achievement visible for learners and valuable for employers when linked to recognised standards. They also make outcomes and social impact more visible for policymakers and commissioners, as learning journeys and destinations leave a digital trace. Again, AI enhances the reach and impact of badges by making them easier to create, share and can make learning and employment pathways more visible through user-centred platforms.

When these technologies are developed through a test-and-learn approach, whether in a place, a programme or a sector, they can evolve iteratively while lowering risk compared to big bang implementation.

While AI has the potential to disrupt the future of work, it will also be critical in supporting technologies that create more coherent and navigable skills systems designed around the needs of learners, providers and employers.

If developed with the public good in mind, combining different technologies with clear routes for users to access and navigate the system, the potential is enormous. Perhaps the most developed place-based public technology infrastructure is Manchester’s own health stack, which extends from a data and analytics core through to the patient-facing GM Care Record. This public health and care platform is a prime case of “Manchesterism” in action and the skills system is waiting for just such a comprehensive and coordinated approach in mayoral areas.

With power and resources devolved to localities and regions, new system-centric policy drivers, and the rapid evolution of the technologies at our disposal, we can confront long-standing weaknesses in the UK’s skills system. The opportunity is there for the taking.

By Anthony Painter, Director of Strategic Engagement, Ufi VocTech Trust