Milburn interim review warns of ‘generational fault line’ as NEET numbers could hit 1.25 million without reform

• Independent reviewer Alan Milburn publishes his interim findings today, making the case for fundamental system change.
• Without urgent action, the number of young people affected could rise to 1.25 million within five years.
• Report details how the first rung of the career ladder has thinned and for too many young people it is now out of reach.
• Milburn will say the current broken system is failing a generation – 84% of NEET young people want a job or training.

Alan Milburn is expected to warn today that Britain faces a “generational fault line” unless it confronts the whole-system failure that has seen nearly one million young people locked out of work, education and training.

The evidence points to something harder to stomach than any single failure. Our schools, our health system, our welfare state, our labour market, the institutions we built to carry young people from childhood into adult life, are no longer fit for purpose, and the country has known this for some time.

The report calls for a system reset from what Alan Milburn describes as a Welfare State that is “exacerbating inactivity” to a Working State that “builds capability”, arguing that new programmes layered on top of a broken system cannot work.

Speaking at the launch of his report, he is expected to say that without urgent action, the number of young people who are NEET – not in education, employment, or training – will rise from 1 in 8 to 1 in 6 young people within five years, representing 1.25 million young lives.

Across the country, parents and grandparents are gripped by a deep fear about what the future holds for today’s young people. For decades, Britain’s unwritten social contract has been that each generation would do better than the last. That promise is being broken.

Alan Milburn is expected to say:

“Six in ten have never had a job. Twenty years ago, that figure was closer to four in ten. Detachment is no longer temporary. For too many young people it is becoming permanent. We are at risk of a lost generation.”

The Report points to Britain’s jobs boom of recent decades largely passing young people by. It says entry level jobs have long been in sharp decline with 1.6 million fewer low and medium skilled jobs in the economy. Vacancies in hospitality have halved in the last four years alone. Saturday jobs have long been in freefall. Apprenticeship starts among young people have fallen by 35% over the last decade. 

Alan Milburn is expected to say:

“The first rung of the career ladder has thinned. For too many young people it is now simply out of reach. That places them in a hopeless Catch-22 where employers ask for work experience but the opportunities for young people to gain it have narrowed or gone.”

Challenging the narrative that young people do not want to work, the review finds that 84% of NEET young people surveyed want a job or training – yet the system is failing to help them get one.

The report exposes a fundamental imbalance in how public money is spent. In 2024/25, for every £1 spent on employment support for young people, around £25 was spent on benefits.

Alan Milburn is expected to say:

“This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past. Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market. Instead, all too often it ends up putting young people on a path to a life not in jobs but on benefits.This should be the priority for the Government. It should be the priority for all of us.”

The interim report sets out the diagnosis and identifies who these young people are, why the system is failing them and where the current trajectory leads if nothing changes.

Final recommendations for fundamental system reform will follow later this year.

Pat McFadden, Work and Pensions Secretary, said:

“I commissioned this report because we cannot afford to lose a generation of young people, and I welcome Alan Milburn’s vital work which lays bare the scale of the challenge and the root causes of youth unemployment we now need to confront.

“We are already taking action by bringing forward the biggest youth employment reforms in a generation to create 500,000 opportunities for young people, including a Youth Jobs Grant for businesses starting next month, more apprenticeships, and subsidised employment to help young people get a foot on the ladder.

“Early intervention is also key, and that’s why we are supporting families with special educational needs, lifting over half a million children out of poverty, and improving vocational learning to give every young person the best start in life.

“But we know there is more to do. I will work across government and with employers, charities and young people to drive real change, so more young people are earning or learning, not left behind. I look forward to working with Alan as he brings forward his final recommendations later this year.”

Stuart Machin, Chief Executive at Marks & Spencer said:

“This report lays bare the joblessness crisis facing a generation of young people. The findings are shocking but not surprising – I hear them every day from our colleagues and customers, who are worried that opportunities and role models are disappearing. A Saturday job in retail changed my life, built my confidence and gave me the skills to build a fulfilling career. We have a chance to provide a similar path to every young person.”

Jon Sparkes OBE, Chief Executive at Mencap said:

“The evidence presented to the Milburn Review is clear: young people, including young people with a learning disability, face too many barriers and too few opportunities. 

“We know that people with a learning disability want to work, develop their skills and contribute to their communities and workplaces. Yet for too long, the very systems intended to support them have instead created barriers. 

“We need change across the system: we have an education system that emphasises exam results over pathways into employment, a benefit system that can penalise people for moving closer to work, and too few opportunities for young people to gain work experience. 

“We hope the future recommendations of this review tackle the deep-rooted inequality that is stopping young people with a learning disability securing a job. When people with a learning disability are excluded from work, everyone loses out – young people, employers, communities, and the wider economy.”

Brian Dow, Chief Executive at Mental Health UK said:

“This is an unflinching and profound system-level diagnosis of a system wide failing. The report is uncompromising in calling out the lazy narratives often used to define an entire generation and instead deeply examines the real challenges young people face.

“In looking at how the combination of welfare, employment support, education, health and the jobs market itself function together it provides the deepest understanding we have seen of how young people are increasingly struggling to get the first foot on the career ladder.

“This should be a turning point, and we’re ready to work with government to be part of the solutions that will create meaningful change for young people, their families and society as a whole.”

David Hughes, Chief Executive at Association of Colleges said:

“I’m delighted that Alan Milburn has engaged a wide coalition of organisations as well as young people themselves to diagnose why our NEET problem is so persistent. We need stronger leadership nationally and locally to agree a coherent approach that ensures the system better meets the needs of every young person.

“Colleges need to be at the heart of the system and with the right investment can do so much more. In countries that have successfully reduced NEET numbers, young people are offered more time in college doing technical education and better access to supportive apprenticeships.”

Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Executive at Confederation of British Industry said:

“Young people should be looking to the future with confidence, but too many are being locked out of work. This report exposes a tragic waste of potential and sets out the key problems that must be fixed.

“Business has a central role in giving young people a better deal. Reducing the high cost of creating jobs in the UK would open up more opportunities, while growth would provide the resources needed to support those facing additional barriers to work, whether linked to skills, health or work-readiness.”

Sarah Yong, Deputy CEO at Youth Futures Foundation said:

“Youth Futures Foundation strongly welcomes the publication of the Young People and Work Interim Report as a significant moment in comprehensively highlighting the scale, complexity and urgency of the challenge faced by many young people locked out of learning or earning, particularly those most marginalised.

“The report rightly emphasises the need for a wide-ranging and systems-led approach to solutions, based on evidence of what works. We have been particularly pleased to convene the Youth Advisory Panel to help ensure the lived experience of young people is central to the interim report.”