Graduate Job Prospects Shaped more by the Economy and Public Sector Funding than AI

Graduate job prospects are being influenced more by wider market conditions than by AI, according to a new report by Prospects, part ofJisc. 

This year’s What do graduates do? report, published 22 October 2026, found that while most graduates continue to secure professional-level jobs quickly, positive outcomes have declined over the last five years following the post-COVID graduate jobs boom.

Prospects’ analysis of HESA Graduate Outcomes data shows that the graduate labour market has tracked the UK economy more closely since summer 2024, reflecting a weaker economy and overall jobs market.

The proportion of UK graduates in full-time employment 15 months after graduation fell from 67.3% to 65.8%, while unemployment went up from 6.2% to 6.8%. Professional-level employment also fell, from 71.9% to 70.9%.

Despite the tougher jobs market, healthcare, teaching, programming and software development roles remained the most common professional occupations for graduates. Wider economic conditions, recruitment patterns and sector-specific pressures are impacting availability of these roles, alongside the potential impact of AI.

While there is currently no evidence of AI causing widespread graduate job displacement, there are signs of possible substitution in some occupations.

The roles with the largest declines, and which may be partly affected by AI, include coders and software professionals, management consultants and graphic designers.

Other graduate professions, including accountancy, financial analysis and law, may also be affected by AI as the technology develops. However, the current data does not yet show clear evidence of widespread AI-driven replacement in these occupations, and recruitment was actually up in these areas last year.

The significant falls in housing officer and primary teacher roles appear more closely linked to public sector funding cuts and lower recruitment across education and local and central government than by AI.

Meanwhile, more graduates went into healthcare where demand remains high and shortages significant. Hospital nurses, community nurses, mental health nurses, paramedics and GPs were among the occupations recording the largest increases in graduate numbers.

Charlie Ball, head of labour market intelligence for Prospects at Jisc said:

“Graduate opportunities are being shaped more by wider economic conditions and sector-specific pressures than by AI, which appears to be playing a more limited role so far. The picture varies considerably by occupation, highlighting the importance of looking beyond AI when understanding the challenges facing today’s graduates.

“The labour market is weak at the moment, but most graduates will go on to secure professional-level employment 15 months after leaving university. For many, this is just the beginning of a career spanning 45 years or more, so it’s important to take a long-term view of career prospects.”