New Post-16 Pathways Outcomes Analysis

The study shows 82% of non-university students on positive post-16 pathways, with apprenticeships delivering standout outcomes

New research published today by the Department for Education provides the most detailed analysis to date of the pathways taken by young people who don’t go straight to university after finishing school or college.

The groundbreaking study, which tracked over 3,600 young people through detailed monthly activity data from age 16 to 20, reveals that the vast majority (82%) of those not taking the traditional A-levels to university route are following positive, progressive pathways into early adulthood.

Key Findings

Nine Distinct Pathways Identified:

• Full-time Education into Employment (28% of non-university students) – two years of education followed by sustained work
• Apprenticeships & Training (19%) – showing the strongest outcomes across multiple measures
• Delayed University Entrants (18%) – starting university one year later than traditional students
• Extended Full-time Education (16%) – spending longer in non-degree education
• FTED into NEET (8%) – moving from education into unemployment and looking for work
• University Non-Completers (6%) – starting university but withdrawing before completion
• Returners (2%) – returning to education after periods in employment or training
• At Home (2%) – predominantly caring for family or unable to work due to illness/disability
• Other NEET (1%) – economically inactive but not actively seeking work or education

Outstanding Apprenticeship Outcomes:

Young people on apprenticeship and training pathways significantly outperformed others on wellbeing measures, reporting the highest life satisfaction (7.5/10), happiness (7.4/10), and sense that their activities were worthwhile (7.7/10).

They also demonstrated:

• Higher wages (£17,000 annually vs £15,700 for employment pathways)
• More permanent contracts (88.8% vs 81.0%)
• Better progression into professional roles (22.6% in managerial/professional positions)
• Lowest rates of psychological distress (22.4% vs 33.4% average)

Areas of Concern:

The research identified 18% of young people on potentially vulnerable pathways, including those experiencing long-term unemployment or predominantly staying at home. These groups showed significantly poorer outcomes across wellbeing, mental health, and material circumstances.

Mental Health Alert:

One in three young people across all pathways reported clinically significant levels of psychological distress, reflecting concerning trends reported elsewhere about declining youth mental health.

Educational Progress Beyond GCSEs

The study demonstrates that many young people continue improving their qualifications post-16:

• 77.5% of those on apprenticeship pathways achieved Level 2 in English and maths by age 19/20
• Extended education pathways helped many achieve qualifications they had missed at GCSE level
• Those on apprenticeships were as likely as university students to gain Level 2 English and maths if they hadn’t achieved this at Key Stage 4

Supporting Government Priorities

The findings support the Government’s focus on developing a skills system aligned with the Industrial Strategy and delivering the five key missions of growing the economy, securing an NHS fit for the future, creating safer streets, breaking down barriers to opportunity, and making Britain a clean energy superpower.

The study tracked young people born in 1998/99 through the second cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE2), providing unprecedented insight into post-16 transitions during 2015-2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.