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Predicted Grades: Just 16% of A level results are predicted correctly

Dr Gill Wyness of the UCL Institute of Education

@UCU have today (8 Dec) published “Predicted grades: accuracy and impact” a report by Dr Gill Wyness, @UCL Institute of Education, exploring the accuracy and impact of the use of predicted grades for application to higher education.

The report asks:

  • How accurate are the predicted grades of university applicants?
  • How does grade accuracy vary according to student characteristics (gender, ethnicity, level of disadvantage) and the school type?
  • What is the impact of the predicted grade system on applicants’ university choices?

The report analyses the data for nearly 1.4m students who progressed to higher education between 2013-2015 and finds that just 16% of A level results are predicted correctly.  

Mismatch in higher education report launch at the Nuffield Foundation

The Nuffield Foundation hosted an event to launch the Mismatch in higher education report at the Nuffield Foundation on Thursday 5 December 2019 from 10:30 till 13:30.

The seminar, chaired by Mary Curnock Cook, summarised findings from new research, led by Dr Gill Wyness of the UCL Institute of Education about the extent of ‘match’ between student academic credentials and the course they attend, the characteristics of students more likely to mismatch, the impact of this on university and labour market outcomes.

The researchers presented findings about the extent to which students from lower income families are missing out on opportunities to attend high-ranking universities, even though they have the right A Level results. The event aims to bring together researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to discuss these findings and consider the implications for how universities and the broader education system can support these students when choosing university courses.

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