MAT Finance Sector Insight Report 2026: Trust financial outlook improves, but almost a third forecast low reserves by 2029

Over a third of multi-academy trusts (MATs) are forecasting an in-year deficit for 2026/27, and almost a third expect reserves to fall below 5% of income by 2028/29, according to a report published by IMP Software in association with the Confederation of School Trusts (CST).

The MAT Finance Sector Insight Report 2026: Improving forecasts, narrowing headroom, which is being launched at the CST Annual Conference in Birmingham today, brings together budget forecasts from 312 MATs covering 3,929 schools for 2026/27 to 2028/29. Among trusts included in both this year’s and last year’s datasets, the proportion forecasting a deficit for 2026/27 has fallen from 54% to 41%. However, declining reserve headroom and uneven pressures across school phases underline the continuing challenges facing trust leaders.

Now in its third year, the report draws on the sector’s only forward-looking dataset to examine projected surpluses and deficits, reserves, pupil numbers, staffing and special educational needs provision, alongside centralisation and funding pooling. Unlike comparisons based on published accounts, it examines how trusts expect their finances to develop and, by tracking organisations included in successive reports, how their planning assumptions have changed.

For the first time, the analysis includes budgeted CEO and CFO pay, giving trustees and executives reference points for assessing remuneration alongside trust size and organisational context. The report comes amid increased emphasis on transparency around funding distribution, financial operating models and executive remuneration through the Academy trust handbook 2026, Academy trust financial operating models: good practice guide and Senior pay controls for academy trusts.

The report’s main findings are:

• 37% of trusts are forecasting an in-year deficit for 2026/27. Among trusts included in both reports, the proportion forecasting a deficit for this same year has fallen from 54% to 41%. This indicates an improvement in planning expectations, although 30% forecast a deficit in both planning rounds.
• Almost a third of trusts expect reserves below 5% of income by 2028/29, a level at which the DfE considers trusts may be financially vulnerable. The proportion rises from 23% in 2026/27 to 32% by 2028/29, suggesting that financial pressures will intensify towards the end of the forecast period.
• Two-thirds of trusts included in both reports now forecast higher reserves for 2026/27 than they anticipated last year. This may reflect prudent budgeting, savings or additional income. However, forecasts represent evolving planning positions rather than certain outcomes, and improved expectations do not remove the need to monitor financial resilience.
• Trusts with smaller schools forecast a steeper decline in reserves. Among the quarter of trusts with the smallest schools, median reserves fall from 7.5% of income in 2026/27 to 6.2% by 2028/29, compared with 8.3% to 8.0% for the quarter with the largest schools. Primary-focused trusts also face greater projected reserve pressure, although school size and phase alone do not determine financial health.
• Primary teaching assistant numbers are projected to fall more than twice as fast as pupil numbers. Between 2026/27 and 2027/28, TA full-time equivalents fall by 3.8% against a 1.6% decline in pupils, with reductions concentrated in a minority of schools. Secondary schools forecast modest pupil growth despite a declining national projection, reinforcing the importance of testing intake assumptions.
• Lower-funded schools face higher pupil-to-teacher ratios whilst committing more income to teachers. Teaching costs absorb a median 39% of revenue income in the lowest-funded quarter of primary schools, compared with 34% in the highest-funded quarter. In secondary schools, the figures are 49% and 40%. This leaves lower-funded schools less flexibility for other priorities.
• Special school funding varies considerably within comparable need groups. Even within the same need category, other grant income per pupil varies widely between schools, particularly in Mixed Need – Generic schools. Median income ranges from around £17,000 per pupil in Broad Need – Communication and Interaction schools to around £26,000 in Primary Need – Social, Emotional and Mental Health schools. These differences may reflect local authority funding approaches and pupil profiles, complicating planning and raising questions about equity.
• Typical CEO and CFO salaries are around £160,000 and £95,000. This is the report’s first analysis of budgeted executive pay. Pay rises with trust size, but more slowly as trusts get larger.
• Centralisation is increasing gradually, whilst finance costs per pupil fall with trust size. Among matched trusts, 24% now centralise all six functions examined, up from 21%. Median finance team costs range from £112 per pupil in small trusts to £94 in large trusts.
• Reserve pooling remains substantially more common than GAG pooling. Some 55% of trusts pool reserves and 18% pool GAG. Approaches remain broadly stable, and the data does not establish, at this stage, that either pooling model produces a stronger financial position.

Will Jordan, Co-founder and CEO of IMP Software, commented:

“Trust leaders and boards are making financial decisions in an environment of continued budget pressures and changing expectations around accountability. Alongside sustaining educational provision, they must be able to explain how resources are allocated, demonstrate value for money and justify the assumptions underpinning their plans. Access to meaningful comparisons with other trusts has an important role to play in supporting those decisions.

“Our aim is to give trust leadership teams useful questions to take back to their boards, as well as data against which to test their answers. Throughout this report, context matters. A lower cost does not automatically mean a more effective service, and a deficit may reflect a planned investment of reserves rather than an underlying funding gap. Benchmarking is most useful when it prompts informed questions about provision, capacity and priorities. It is never a silver bullet, but it should be used to drive the right conversations.

“Overall, updated forecasts offer some encouragement, but declining reserve headroom and uneven pressures across school phases remain significant concerns. Sustaining educational provision and retaining the flexibility to meet changing needs will depend on robust pupil forecasts, considered staffing plans and ongoing scrutiny of budgets. We want every trust to be able to use this evidence to test its assumptions on reserves, staffing and pay, and explain the reasoning behind its financial decisions.”

Writing in the report Foreword, CST Chief Executive Leora Cruddas CBE, explained:

“This report embodies two of the great strengths of the trust system: the ability to innovate, and the ability to connect. IMP Software itself was born out of the changing needs of school trusts, to provide software that supports the different ways of working that trusts have and continue to evolve. As our trusts help connect schools together, the systems that support us connect our data together so we can understand more about what works and what doesn’t. Our own National School Trust Report highlights that trusts have a strong tendency to share and work together across the sector. This report is another example of that, with data from hundreds of trusts united to help us compare notes.”

The MAT Finance Sector Insight Report 2026 is also supported by IMP’s professional services partner UHY Birmingham.

In today’s CST Annual Conference breakout session, Benchmarking that goes deeper: What IMP’s 2026 Financial Benchmarking Report reveals about pay, people, and performance across the sector, Will Jordan and IMP Software’s Head of Product Warren Porter will explore the findings on staffing ratios, school-level cost pressures and the size and shape of central teams, alongside new CEO and CFO pay benchmarking against trusts of similar size. They will share what the data reveals about how trusts are planning for the years ahead and equip trust leadership teams with questions to take back to their boards.

IMP Software is the only finance platform built from the ground up for multi-academy trusts, independent schools and FE colleges. Trusted by more than 600 MATs and 7,000 schools, independent schools and FE colleges across the country, the IMP Unified Platform is one purpose-built environment for education bringing a single source of truth.