Yusuf Ibrahim, Vice Principal at CAVC, takes Alan Milburn’s interim review as a starting point and asks what the Welsh data really tells us about a system that has stopped aligning around the young people it is meant to serve.

Most of us recognise the feeling.

You walk into a room at home and are met with it. Clothes piled high. Dishes stacked in the sink. Things left undone, beginning to overwhelm what should be a manageable space. The initial reaction is often the same. A sense of dread, followed quickly by the instinct that something needs to be sorted, organised, put right.

When we encounter a situation like this, the instinct is often to ask how it happened.

For young people, that question becomes more fundamental. Why should they have to navigate a system shaped by decisions not of their making? And what does it say about that system if we expect them to put it right?

Alan Milburn’s Young People and Work interim report paints a picture of a system that has reached that point. A system where pressures have built over time, where responsibilities are unclear, and where the structures needed to restore order are no longer aligned.

This is not simply untidiness. It is a question of design.

Milburn’s diagnosis is stark. Without significant reform, the number of young people not in education, employment or training could rise towards 1.25 million within the next decade. More fundamentally, the report suggests that the long-standing assumption that each generation will experience greater opportunity than the last is beginning to weaken (Milburn, 2026).

For a growing number of young people, the transition into work is no longer simply complex. It is increasingly uncertain, and in some cases, absent.

At one level, the instinct is to respond as we would at home. To identify what is not working and put it right. But the report makes clear that this is not a situation that can be resolved through small adjustments or isolated fixes.

This is not a mess that can simply be tidied. It is the product of a system that is no longer coherently organised around the outcomes it is meant to deliver. This raises a more specific question. What does this look like in Wales?

Starting from a different place

Any analysis of youth outcomes in Wales must begin with context.

Wales continues to experience higher levels of poverty than many parts of the UK. Around one in five people live in relative income poverty, with close to one in three children affected (Senedd Research, 2023). Poverty shapes attainment, participation and the extent to which young people engage with education as a route to opportunity.

However, context alone does not fully explain outcomes.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies highlights that educational attainment in Wales is lower than in England even when comparing learners from similar disadvantaged backgrounds (Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024). Disadvantaged pupils in England achieve significantly higher outcomes on international measures.

This suggests that while the environment matters, so too does how the system responds to it.

An acid test for the system

International comparisons such as PISA provide a useful lens on system performance.

The most recent results show that Wales experienced one of the largest declines among participating countries, with scores in reading, mathematics and science falling significantly (Ingram et al., 2023; Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2024).

These findings are not simply about ranking. They indicate the level of knowledge and skills that learners carry forward into further learning and employment. In that sense, they are less a judgement and more a signal.

They suggest that the foundations required for progression are not being built consistently.

A pipeline under pressure

When viewed alongside post-16 participation, a consistent pattern emerges.

Wales has a higher proportion of young people who are not in education, employment or training than other parts of the UK. Participation in higher education is also lower, particularly among young men (Welsh Government, 2023; Universities Wales, 2024).

At the same time, employers report persistent skills shortages (Open University, 2024).

There is demand.
There is potential.
But the system is not consistently connecting the two.

The scale and shape of the challenge

This challenge is not abstract. It is visible in the scale and trajectory of the data.

Recent figures show that 17% of young people aged 16 to 24 in Wales were not in education, employment or training in the year ending December 2025 (Welsh Government, 2025a).

This reflects a sustained shift rather than a temporary fluctuation.

At this scale, the issue moves beyond statistics and becomes something more tangible. In a typical further education setting of 20 learners, this would equate to around three or four young people who are not in education, employment or training. Among disabled learners, the picture is even more stark, with the proportion rising towards two in five in older age groups. This brings into sharp focus the lived implications of system performance and the urgency of the challenge.

What this reveals is not a single point of failure, but accumulation. Like any space that has been allowed to become disordered over time, the issue is the layering of decisions, priorities and incentives that have not aligned.

A wider lens on system failure

This is not unique to Wales.

Across the UK, similar patterns are emerging. Systems have become fragmented. Responsibilities are dispersed. Data is not always shared or used effectively. Education, health and employment systems operate alongside each other rather than in coordination (Association of Colleges, 2026).

The result is not coherence, but accumulation without structure.

Different parts of the system are doing their work, but without a shared sense of ownership for the whole.

Where the system has become misaligned

If the system is to be understood clearly, it is important to recognise where alignment has been lost.

One area is the challenge of parity of esteem between academic and vocational pathways. Despite policy intent, vocational routes continue to be seen as secondary, shaping both perception and opportunity.

There are also structural inconsistencies. Delays in qualification reform create uncertainty. Parts of the system operate with differing levels of oversight. Higher education continues to expand, while its relationship to labour market demand is not always clear. New institutional arrangements and structures have emerged without always being fully integrated into place-based systems.

Elsewhere, policies that are well conceived are not always consistently delivered. Degree apprenticeships offer a strong model in principle, but implementation has been uneven.

At the same time, employers are not consistently incentivised to engage. Many express willingness, but face barriers in capacity and support.

Individually, these issues are understandable. Collectively, they leave the system without clear organisation. What this creates is not simply complexity, but a system where routes are unclear and where not everything has a clear place or purpose.

From provision to system behaviour

Wales has a strong education infrastructure.

But the challenge lies in how it is resourced and how it behaves.

Further education, in particular, sits at the centre of this tension. Colleges are being asked to respond to rising demand, while operating within constrained funding. Recent analysis highlights significant levels of unfunded delivery already being absorbed by the sector (ColegauCymru, 2026).

At precisely the point where the system needs to expand, its ability to do so is limited.

This is not simply a funding issue.

It reflects a system that is not yet configured to respond at the scale required. The system is being asked to do more, while lacking the alignment required to do so effectively.

Operating within constraint

It is also important to recognise that these challenges do not sit in isolation.

The Welsh system operates within wider economic and fiscal constraints. Global pressures, UK-wide policy decisions and the nature of devolved funding all shape what is possible.

But constraint does not remove responsibility.

It sharpens it. Because in systems under pressure, how resources are organised becomes more important than the volume alone.

Measuring what matters

One of the clearest indicators of misalignment lies in how success is measured.

Too often, it is defined at the point of exit. Qualifications achieved. Programmes completed.

Important, but incomplete.

The more meaningful measures are those that follow.

Do learners progress?
Do they sustain employment?
Do they move into areas of need?

Without this, the system continues to produce activity without always delivering outcomes.

A moment for system leadership

Milburn provides a diagnosis. The Welsh evidence provides depth. A wider system lens provides comparison. Together, they point to a single conclusion. This is not a problem of effort. It is a problem of organisation.

Systems do not become disordered overnight. They evolve, layer by layer, until the connection between parts is no longer strong enough to hold them together.

The task now is not simply to tidy what sits on the surface. It is to design a system where everything has a place, and where every part is aligned to a clear purpose.

After nearly three decades of devolution, Wales has the tools to do this. Policy, institutions and leadership all sit within reach.

The next phase is not description. It is alignment. Alignment between policy and practice. Between provision and need. Between what is measured and what is valued. And ultimately, alignment between what the system intends and what it delivers. If this is a problem of alignment, then the response must be equally deliberate.

It means being clearer about what the system is designed to do, and what it is not. It means prioritising progression over participation, outcomes over activity, and coordination over fragmentation. It means being willing to make difficult decisions about where resource is directed and how success is defined.

And it means recognising that not everything can remain as it is. Because without change at that level, the system will continue to accumulate pressure rather than resolve it.

By Yusuf Ibrahim, Vice Principal Curriculum and Standards, CAVC

References

Association of Colleges (2026) Alan Milburn’s Young People and Work Interim Report: next steps. London: Association of Colleges.

ColegauCymru (2026) Welsh Government budget risks shutting learners out of college. Available at: https://www.colleges.wales/en/blog/post/welsh-government-budget-risks-shutting-learners-out-of-college.

Institute for Fiscal Studies (2024) Major challenges for education in Wales. London: Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Ingram, J. et al. (2023) PISA 2022: National Report for Wales. Cardiff: Welsh Government.

Milburn, A. (2026) Young People and Work: Interim Report. London: UK Government.

Open University (2024) Business Barometer: Skills shortages in Wales. Milton Keynes: Open University.

Senedd Research (2023) From cradle to grave: Breaking the cycle of inequality and poverty. Cardiff: Senedd Cymru.

Universities Wales (2024) Welsh applications to university continue to fall. Cardiff: Universities Wales.

Welsh Government (2023) Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET). Cardiff: Welsh Government.

Welsh Government (2025a) Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET): 2025. Cardiff: Welsh Government.

Welsh Government (2025b) Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET): October 2024 to September 2025. Cardiff: Welsh Government.