A new report by EPI explores how long-term changes in education and employment outcomes vary across the four UK nations

The report highlights the impact of differences in post-16 education and training systems and policies, with a specific focus on whether Scotland’s Winter Leaving Rules have influenced the education and job prospects of young people. The analysis covers the education and employment outcomes of individuals born across the UK from the late 1940s through to the late 1980s.

Scotland’s Winter Leaving Rules require young people born between October and February to stay in school until at least Christmas of the following academic year, adding an extra 4-5 months of schooling. While this policy increases school attendance, it shows little to no benefit in terms of higher educational qualifications or employment outcomes. In fact, winter leavers are less likely to be in positive education or employment destinations than children who leave education at the end of academic years, such as S4 and S5.

For older cohorts, there were large gaps by nation in terms of the share of individuals with Level 2 qualifications (equivalent to GCSEs and National 5s). Amongst men born in the 1940s and 1950s, Level 2 qualification rates were much lower in Wales and Northern Ireland, ranging from 55-60%, compared to England and Scotland, where rates were around 65-70%. Over time, this gap closed, with about 90% of men born in the late 1980s achieving Level 2 qualifications across all four nations.

Women initially had lower attainment rates than men, but their attainment increased significantly over time. By the mid-1960s cohorts, the gender gap had disappeared, and in recent cohorts, women are as likely—if not more likely—than men to have Level 2 qualifications.

Scotland has consistently outperformed other UK nations in maintaining higher rates of Level 3 qualifications. Stretching back to at least those born in the 1940s, Scotland has long had a higher share of individuals with Level 3 qualifications (equivalent to A levels and Highers). Among those born in the 1980s, nearly 80% of men and women in Scotland had Level 3 qualifications, compared to about 70% in England and Northern Ireland. In contrast, Wales lags behind on Level 3 qualifications. For those born in the 1980s, about 65-70% of women in Wales hold Level 3 qualifications, while the figures are even lower for men, with about 60-65% of men in Wales born in the 1980s holding Level 3 qualifications.

The report recommends that the Scottish government abolish winter leaving rules so that all students in the same cohort leave school at the same time, either at the end of S4 or S5 if the Scottish Government wanted all children to stay in school longer. This would eliminate the disadvantage faced by winter leavers and simplify the system for students, parents, and educators alike.

The report also highlights that more active and urgent action is required in Wales. Policymakers in Wales should take more decisive steps to understand and improve post-16 educational outcomes and inequalities. They should ensure that all young people in Wales have access to high-quality Level 3 qualifications while also focusing on improving GCSE attainment and reducing inequalities so that more young people in Wales are in a position to take Level 3 qualifications after age 16.