Installer readiness grows but limited opportunity slows the shift to heat pumps

• New Baxi research finds installers increasingly prepared for heat pumps but lacking real installation opportunities
• Heat-pump installers are more positive about demand than the wider market
• Apprentices see a positive future despite political disagreement on net zero

Baxi’s 2026 installer research shows a workforce better prepared for low-carbon heating, but capability is not translating into installations at the pace required. Installers remain downbeat on demand, although those already fitting heat pumps are more positive.

Six in ten installers are developing heat-pump competencies or planning to. The share actively developing skills doubled to 8% compared with 2025, while those definitely planning to rose by 10 percentage points. Only 8% ruled it out, down on 2025, but a quarter were ‘unsure’, up from 15%.

More than 10,650 people completed MCS-aligned training through the Heat Training Grant in its first two years. Yet the survey shows a widening readiness versus opportunity gap: the share already installing air source heat pumps (ASHPs) rose to 5%, but those extremely or somewhat likely to transition declined, while uncertainty and reluctance increased.

Deployment remains subdued. MCS reported installations down 17% year on year as of June 2026, with just over 25,000 in the first half; its figures almost entirely cover one-off replacements. More than 125,000 heat pumps were sold in 2025, up 27% on 2024, highlighting growth potential but fragile momentum. The reduction in Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding for 2027–2030, as announced in the 28 October Autumn Budget, removes around 100,000 heat pumps from eligibility, assuming current grants remain unchanged. This indicates government acceptance of slow domestic retrofit growth, with significant volume gains now expected from new build.

Demand, not skills, is becoming the central constraint

Concerns about policy, administration, training and accreditation declined considerably in 2026, including MCS complexity, training costs and government support. Lack of demand remained the leading barrier, with customer concerns about cost and disruption prominent.

Conventional heating remains a dependable source of work. Most respondents had enough or more than enough work; more reported surplus work in 2026, while fewer wanted more business. This reduces the immediate commercial pressure to diversify and embrace heat pumps.

Ian Trott, Head of UK Training Solutions at Baxi, said:

“The industry has done a great job of investing in training, and installers increasingly have the skills they need to install heat pumps. The next challenge is giving them the hands-on experience and confidence to put those skills into practice.

“Installers are on the front line with customers. They’re the people answering questions, challenging misconceptions and giving homeowners the confidence to make the switch. If government is serious about accelerating heat pump adoption, it should be asking how it can better harness that installer network and turn a trained workforce into a powerful driver of demand.”

Heat pump installers see stronger customer interest

Among the smaller ASHP installer sample, 60% reported increased customer interest or enquiries over the previous year—almost three times the level among other installers. They were more likely to favour greater consumer choice and household incentives to encourage market participation than accreditation or system-design support.

Hands-on experience may explain this confidence, helping installers discuss benefits and address myths with customers. Formal training provides technical knowledge, but low installation volumes limit newly qualified installers’ opportunities to gain experience and confidence.

Greater support for hybrid systems

Weak demand, customer concerns about cost and disruption, and plentiful conventional work undermine the commercial case for change, despite easing training and accreditation barriers. As in 2025, installers preferred heat pumps paired with combi-boilers to heat-pump-only systems. This may reflect lower cost, less disruption and simpler installation, with the boiler supplying hot water instead of a cylinder. Among ASHP installers, greater consumer choice, including hybrids, was the leading measure identified to encourage low-carbon heating participation.

Apprentices see a bright future

Baxi partnered with JTL to include apprentices’ views on the industry and sustainable heating technologies in the 2026 survey. Among JTL apprentices, 83% were very or fairly optimistic about their careers. Half saw future opportunities in ASHPs, while 42% selected both hybrid systems and gas boilers. However, two thirds said political debate on net zero and energy policy made the industry’s future direction difficult to understand.

Commenting on the report, Clair Bradley, Director of Operations for JTL, said:

“It’s encouraging to see that 83% of our apprentices feel positive about their future in the industry. These are the technicians who will deliver the UK’s transition to low-carbon heating, and their confidence matters as much as the technology itself.

“Our own workforce modelling shows England has lost 25,700 plumbing, heating and ventilation engineers since 2018, with a further 30% fall forecast by 2039 on current trends. That’s a challenge we’re determined to meet head-on. Our apprentices show us there is no shortage of ambition, but what we need now is the investment to open the door to more young people.”

Implications for policy and industry

Baxi’s findings highlight the need to connect installer capability with consistent consumer demand. Priorities include long-term certainty for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, lower relative electricity costs, timely and trusted Warm Homes Agency advice, and support to integrate heat-pump sales and delivery into installers’ everyday operations.