Did The Spring Statement Reveal A ‘System Story’ Interconnecting NEETs and Unemployment? FE Soundbite 837
Welcome to FE Soundbite Edition 837: 7th March 2026 | What is the interconnected ‘System Story’ on NEETs, Unemployment, SEND and Neurodiversity?
This is the weekly e-newsletter and e-journal by FE News: ISSN 2732-4095. We know life is busy, so here’s a snapshot of the latest announcements and epic thought leadership articles from sector influencers and thought leaders across FE and Skills this week on FE News.
Gavin’s Reflective Perspective
FE News is all about looking at the wide scope, different reports, different research, systems and lessons from across the world… and creating System Stories to help improve our provision for learners or spot the gaps to look to improve things. This week has had some really interesting system stories emerge: from the Spring Statement, transport and SEND, to lessons from literally the other side of the world on careers advice, AI literacy and skills.
Unemployment is going to get worse, before it gets better
We had the Spring statement this week. The Chancellor shared the Spring statement on Tuesday, the good news: the forecast shows borrowing is down by nearly £18 billion compared to the Autumn and the ‘headroom’ against the Chancellor’s ‘Stability rule’ has increased to almost £24 Billion. Which sounds good, I’m not an economist, but if you could see my face, I’d be putting a thumb up and bottom lip out whilst nodding… thinking that sounds great?? But… what I do understand, is that the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) has forecast that unemployment is now expected to peak at 5.3% this year (it is currently 5.2%).
If you add in the impact of the Iran war, depends how long this all goes on for, the impact on labour market and jobs, cost of living (which was a major theme of the Spring Statement), could also all get a lot worse before it gets better!
Entrants to the Labour Force Struggling to Find Work
Youth Unemployment Is Now at 14%. Just last week, the latest NEET data from ONS was released, revealing that there are around 957,000 young people currently classified as NEET, up from 946,000 in the previous quarter. So this would be fresh in the OBR and Chancellor’s mind!
I found a couple of statements, a bit buried in the OBR Fiscal output report, which I found really interesting: “Labour market weakness still appears to be driven by entrants into the labour force struggling to find work amid subdued hiring demand”…. and: “It is not yet clear what the impact will be on the labour market of new technologies such as AI and higher labour costs from policies such as the rise in employer National Insurance contributions“.
Joining the dots and the Unemployment and NEETs ‘System Story’
There is an interesting ‘System story’ that is emerging from the Spring Statement and findings from OBR on unemployment and NEETs. Eg young people are struggling to find work, or join the labour market… hence the increase in number of NEETs… and the OBR is seeing impacts from rising costs for employer National Insurance, as potentially the cause of that… and also flagging the impact of AI, automation and disruptions to entry level jobs.
The ONS NEETs stats seem to show the same ‘System story’ of linking this together. If you also add in the impact of AI, a week after the latest labour market stats… Anthropic rolled out an update that wiped 13% off IBM’s share price, with an update to the ancient COBOL programming language… Forbes calculated this one update to wipe $31 Billion off IBM’s share price in one day, with just one update by Anthropic… that is the biggest drop for IBM since the 2000 dotcom volatility. So, erm, yeah, AI’s impact is going to be massive, hence the ‘uncertainty’ shared by the OBR about its impact on entry-level jobs!
PAC Highlight £2.5Bn Home-to-School Transport Bill Not Covered by SEND Reforms
This is interesting, from the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) calls for better local transport options to benefit communities and reduce costs around home-to-school transport. The committee highlights a post-16 cliff-edge in transport costs for SEND, with parents often experiencing a ‘cliff-edge’ in this support post-16, after which any support is at the local authorities’ discretion.
SEND Cliff Edge Post-16 and Impact of Declining Rural Transport Networks
The term ‘cliff edge’ in SEND post-16 has been used several times, previously by Helen Hayes with the Education Select Committee ‘Solving the SEND Crisis’, and now with transport for SEND learners. Rachel Gilmour MP, Member of the Public Accounts Committee… and MP for Tiverton and Minehead, also highlighted the impact of the decline of rural bus services on learners (highlighted here for SEND), but this will also be a massive potential impact for rural young people and NEET numbers (it isn’t just a big city issue)! So this is really interesting to see in the mix, and that this is highlighted.
Looks Like Loads of Cool Stuff is Going On Down Under
We had two really interesting exclusives this week, both looking at Australia for inspiration. Professor Rose Luckin (who for me, is THE global Education AI expert) has just returned from a trip to Australia with educators and policymakers on AI and skills. Rose highlights Australia’s National AI Plan … and how Australia has put Vocational Education at the heart of its national AI skills strategy. Very interesting! You can’t have a National AI Plan, without skills, AI literacy, governance!
I also really liked Steve Cole’s article on Careers Advice and AI from Australia, particularly the ‘My Career Insights’ programme, delivered for the Department for Education in the State of Victoria, with his article A Blueprint For State Careers Provision? Look To Australia.
Feeling a bit cold writing this, so if anyone wants to show me some of this cool provision in Aus… I’d be up for it! Interesting stuff in Australia and interesting that this looks interconnected.
Neurodiversity System Story
Prof Amanda Kirby wrote a cracker this week as well: A Pivotal Moment for Neurodivergent Learners: What the Latest Policy Frameworks Tell Us. Amanda is looking firmly in the UK… and at UK policy. She highlighted that within a few months, three major documents have landed, together representing the most substantial government attention to neurodivergence in education and health for a generation. The DfE’s Neurodivergence Task and Finish Group, the Education White Paper ‘Every Child Achieving and Thriving’ (published February 2026), and NHS England’s independent ADHD Taskforce Part 2 Report (November 2025)… each approaching the challenge from a different angle… but if you look at them together, they tell a compelling and, at times, urgent story. I’d highly recommend this.. and again is a very interesting ‘System Story’.
Defunded, Not Derailed
We launched the Defunded, Not Derailed live stream season with Cambridge OCR this week, looking at defunding of some large programmes in FE and Skills, with September and new learners arriving, but what do you do in the interim? So I hope you found this helpful. I have heard from several people there should be some more clarity on the defunding coming next week, so let’s hope this helps leaders plan and not feel tight on time to pivot, plan or feel derailed for September 2026.
I hope you enjoy FE Soundbite this week
Epic Exclusives Thought Leadership Articles
Our Top 3 Thought Leadership Articles This Week
Firstly, Scrolling Through the Evidence: The Case Against By Neil Wolstenholme, Kloodle Chairman
Secondly, I Have Just Returned from Australia. What I Saw There Should Interest Every FE Leader in the UK By Professor Rose Luckin is Professor of Learner Centred Design at UCL Institute of Education and founder of Educate Ventures Research.
Finally, What the rise of practical jobs says about skills, employability and opportunity in the age of AI By Matt Burney, Senior Strategic Advisor, Indeed
This week, we also had some other Epic Exclusives!
A Pivotal Moment for Neurodivergent Learners: What the Latest Policy Frameworks Tell Us By Professor Amanda Kirby, MBBS MRCGP PhD, CEO, Do-IT Solutions Ltd
A Blueprint For State Careers Provision? Look To Australia By Steve Cole, CEO, Morrisby
Further Education and Skills: The Best-Kept Secret of England’s Tertiary System By Dr Vikki Smith, Executive Director of Education and Standards, Education Training Foundation
The Sector Asked for Reform: Now Let’s Get Behind it By Asfa Sohail, Deputy CEO and Executive Principal, London South East Colleges
What’s New in the World of FE?
Defunded, Not Derailed: Mixed Study Programmes for 2026 | Episode One
Annoucements
PAC Warns £2.5Bn Home-to-School Transport Bill Not Covered by SEND Reforms By the Public Accounts Committee (PAC)
Children’s Commissioner report on the college sector By the Children’s Commissioner
Government Launches Independent Review into Antisemitism in Schools and Colleges By the Department for Education (DfE)
Wales joins Connect to Work as thousands offered help into jobs By the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)
Cross-party parliamentarians launch inquiry on adult education By the Association of Colleges (AoC)
AoC Beacon Award winners 2025/26 Announced By the Association of Colleges (AoC)
Report
One in four workers are planning to change jobs this year By Ciphr
Spring Statement 2026: OBR Forecast For Unemployment, Now Expected To Peak At 5.3% This Year By the HM Treasury
Voices
Ensuring Neuro-Inclusion for Learners and Staff By Sarah Vickrage, Fellowship of Inspection Nominees
How Better Employer Matching Can Transform Apprenticeship Outcomes By Adam Herbert, CEO & Co-founder, Go Live Data
Preparing UK educators for the next phase of AI strategy and EdTech policy By Zemina Hasham, Chief Customer Experience Officer at Turnitin
Why Essential Skills Are Hard To Assess, And Why That Matters By Rebecca Conway, Director of Research and Innovation at NCFE
In The Know
We have two Collective Intelligence events planned for 2026… aka Collectives
We have big plans for upcoming Collectives, and you can get involved. One is on SEND in April… and another on NEETs in June. We have learnt a lot from the Green Mindset Collective and we are drawing from this on how to give people more voice, more influence on the report… and to make the report more action focused (the Green Mindset Collective had a playbook for people to use, not just a dusty report that is never accessed, but something usable as a takeaway for the entire sector).
On 24th April 2026, at Tavistock Square in London, join us for the Bridging the SEND Transition Collective in partnership with ETF
Join us for the Breaking Barriers Collective event in partnership with Edge Foundation, working together collectively to solve the NEET puzzle.
These aren’t conferences; these are collectives. These aren’t lectures or chalk and talk, but interactive: it’s rolling up your sleeves and making real change, where you get involved and actually give real input. These are two massively important Collectives, so join us and help shape the report and sector response!
By Danny O’Meara, Operations Manager, FE News and