Housebuilding and clean energy at risk as plumbing workforce set to shrink by 30%

England’s plumbing workforce is on course to shrink by 30% by 2039, according to a new report. This is the first time data has been collated and modelled from across the sector’s main skills card schemes to map the true scale of the workforce.

Since 2018, the workforce has fallen by 16%, from 163,500 to 137,800. Without action, this shortage threatens the Government’s housebuilding plans such as Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s pledge for the biggest council housebuilding programme since the post-war period. It also threatens a pipeline of data centre developments worth tens of billions of pounds by 2030, and major energy projects across the country, as well as the heat pumps and other low-carbon heating technology needed for the clean energy transition.

The latest available full year data shows that 2,150 people started a plumbing apprenticeship in England, when Skills England’s own growth modelling implies over 8,500 new entrants a year are needed to meet workforce growth and replacement demands. Apprentices already make up just 5.2% of the plumbing workforce today, less than half the 14.2% share seen in electrical, leaving too few people in training to replace the tradespeople retiring from the sector in the years ahead.

In response to the report’s finding, JTL is calling for the government to take urgent action to boost the uptake of plumbing apprentices. Their asks include:

• Raise the SME apprenticeship hiring incentive from £2,000 to £3,000 for under-25s, with a further £3,000 for priority construction standards.
• Designate plumbing a priority occupation in national workforce planning, with funding tied to projected shortfalls.
• Remove the delay to the new Level 2 and Level 3 plumbing standards and bring them forward without further hold-ups.

Apprenticeships remain the industry’s gold-standard route into the trade, giving plumbers the breadth of on-the-job experience that classroom-only courses cannot replicate. Yet the number of people completing a plumbing apprenticeship is now around half what it was a decade ago, and completion rates have stalled at approximately 45%.

The findings draw on new workforce modelling built with data and insight from the Office for National Statistics, the Department for Education, the Joint Industry Board for Plumbing and Mechanical Engineering Services, the Building Engineering Services Association and industry partners including CIPHE, APHC, MCS, HPA, IOR and SNIPEF.

Chris Claydon, CEO of JTL, said:

“This country cannot build the homes, energy infrastructure and communities it needs without enough skilled plumbers and heating engineers to do the work. The pipeline into this trade is far too narrow, and every year we delay fixing it, the shortfall grows harder to reverse. Government, employers and training providers all have a part to play, starting with clear standards, proper incentives and a genuine commitment to apprenticeships as the route into this profession.”

Maria Balermpa, Operations and Communications Manager at Actuate UK, part of EBSSA, said:

“JTL has produced a first of its kind report and workforce projection model that brings a deeper understanding to the current and future industry needs for plumbing professionals, an integral part of the water, heating, gas and low carbon technologies sectors.

“It is now up for the industry and Government to jointly address the workforce challenge, building on the work already underway with Competences Frameworks and the recommendations of the Engineering and Building Services Skills Alliance’s EBSSA’s Sector Skills Plan.”

Sarah Fry, CEO at APHC, added:

“The findings of this report reinforce what APHC members are telling us every day. Demand for skilled plumbing and heating professionals continues to grow, yet many small businesses face increasing barriers to recruiting and developing the next generation. Practical support, simpler training pathways and targeted investment are needed to help SMEs continue developing the skilled workforce on which the country’s housing, infrastructure and net zero ambitions depend.”

Kevan Holmes, General Manager at JIB-PMES, said:

“JIB-PMES congratulates JTL on this report and is pleased to have contributed. It is a positive step for the sector to have data driven insights and analysis available to support decision making processes.

“The report clearly identifies that urgent action is required to address the massive disparity in numbers between classroom-only plumbing/domestic heating qualifications and full plumbing/domestic heating apprenticeships; and to provide employers and the apprenticeship training delivery network with the support needed to help reverse the catastrophic decline in plumbing/domestic heating apprenticeship completions.”

Jill Nicholls, Director of Competence & Compliance at BESA, commented:

“The Building Engineering Services Association (BESA) welcomes this important report from JTL, which provides further evidence of the growing workforce challenge facing the plumbing and HVAC sector and highlights the urgent need for action to strengthen the apprenticeship pipeline.

“While the report focuses on plumbing and heating, the position across the wider commercial and industrial building engineering services sector is arguably even more acute. Our members are already experiencing significant shortages of qualified engineers, supervisors and technical specialists, particularly in areas linked to the net zero transition, critical infrastructure projects and the rapidly expanding data centre market. We hope this report provides a wakeup call for policy makers and encourages conversation with us to discuss how we can work collaboratively to deliver our shared targets.”