PIP, NEETs and the £41 Billion Welfare Bill: Why The Timms Review Matters For Skills and Employability | FE Soundbite 855
Welcome to FE Soundbite Edition 855: 11th July 2026. PIP, NEETs and the £41 Billion Welfare Bill: Why the Timms Review Matters for Skills and Employability
This is the weekly e-newsletter and e-journal by FE News: ISSN 2732-4095. We know life is busy, so here’s a snapshot of the latest announcements and epic thought leadership articles from sector influencers and thought leaders across FE and Skills this week on FE News.
Upcoming national day to celebrate vocational learning
Save the date for Vocational Celebration Day on 6 August 2026, led by Enginuity and EAL — a national campaign celebrating the value and impact of vocational and technical learning. Organisations, educators and individuals can now get involved and show their support by downloading the FREE campaign pack and joining the celebration.
Gavin’s Reflective Perspective
First up, I was really sad to hear that David Gallagher unfortunately passed away on Sunday. I highly rated David, he was so influential behind the scenes for so many cool skills, employability and reaching the hard to reach initiatives… he was also an all round genuinely great bloke. So many colleagues in the sector have shared their memories and fondness of David here as well. So if you want to leave any comments or fond memories, here is a good place to do this.
Timms Review
The first full review of Personal Independence Payment since its 2013 introduction has found the benefit is “not fit for purpose”. This is the Timms interim review.. the Milburn Review (NEETs), and Mayfield Review (Keep Britain Working / Economic Inactivity Due to ill health)… are all interlinked. We first highlighted the importance of all three reviews… alarmingly back in November 2025.
The Timms review drew on more than 38,000 responses to its call for evidence. The interim report does not make recommendations; those are due in the autumn, but it sets out early findings that will land squarely in FE and skills territory.
The Timms review might have slipped under your radar… here is why it is important:
Among the most striking figures: the disability employment rate stood at 52.8% in 2025, compared with 82.5% for non-disabled people, a gap of 29.7 percentage points that early indications suggest is widening. Fewer than one in five PIP claimants are currently in employment. Yet separate research cited in the report found the large majority of health and disability benefit recipients who could conceivably work want to, with health and healthcare access, including NHS waiting lists, identified as the main barrier rather than a lack of motivation.
PIP and 16-19 year olds… and those in their 30’s
The Timms review also highlights that an increase in disability benefit prevalence has been sharpest among 16-to 19-year-olds and those in their thirties, with autism and ADHD now dominating primary conditions among the youngest claimants. Reported mental health conditions have risen significantly since the pandemic.
So… NEETs, SEND, Neuroinclusion, Economic Inactivity Due to ill health.. then support for employers… it’s all linked… Milburn gets a massive mention again (as Burnham mentioned the other day in announcing Number 10 North a few days ago). This is all so important to be on everyone’s radar… but I hear you… we are busy dealing with Apprenticeship changes, colleges are breaking up, V Levels… I get it…. but I think we are about to have one of the biggest shake ups in FE and Skills … ever, Milburn mentioned it at the end of May… in fact was really clear, the system is geared towards the institution, not the learner.. or employer… the numbers don’t lie and we can’t afford to keep doing this… things need to change.
This isn’t just about skills policy, welfare reform, education policy… it is also economics and the economics of the nation.
The Driver – the Welfare Bill
Now there is a moral issue here… for NEETs with Milburn, Economic Inactivity for Mayfield.. to give people options, potential.. though for me… the real driver is the Welfare Bill! The Timms review highlights, well, the Office for Budget Responsibility’s spending projections, which forecast that PIP expenditure will rise from around £15 billion in 2020 to over £41 billion by 2031.
We have a new PM coming into power… in literally days. Burnham will have to keep an eye on the ££… particularly Welfare reform… this is going to be massively important. For me, I think the ‘straw that broke the camel’s back’ for Starmer was the limited funds and budget available for Defence. Now drone warfare is where it is at in Ukraine, so I get it… but they don’t have enough ‘cash in the till’ for our commitments, if the PIP welfare bill is rising from £15 Billion in 2020 (six years ago)… and predicted to be £41 Billion by 2031 (in five years), things need to change… this is intrinsically linked to NEETs, to Economic Inactivity due to ill health… this will affect future strategies in skills, in employability… in education full stop, access to work thinking for employers. So watch this space!
23 years at FE News
… and according to LinkedIn. This week was my 23rd anniversary here at FE News. Thank you to everyone for your well wishes… and lovely comments. Thank you… ironically, just like 23 years ago.. we are developing FE News in the background (as we launched in the September)… so we are literally reimagining FE News as a platform as we speak…. more on this in the near future! … but thank you for all of your support, encouragement… here is to many more years of FE News!
How are you celebrating Vocational Celebration Day?
…. and thank you to Enginuity for sponsoring FE Soundbite this week. How are you celebrating Vocational Celebration Day on the 6th August?
Epic Exclusives Thought Leadership Articles
This week, we also had some other Epic Exclusives!
Burnham in Number 10: A New Dawn For Education and Skills? By Alice Gardner is CEO of the Edge Foundation
Opening Doors Mini Series: Opening Doors: How Employers are Creating Pathways into Skilled Careers for Young People By Alison Morris, Director of Policy at Skills Federation; Adrian Wookey, Head of New Entrants, Training Pathways and Further Education Strategy at the Engineering Construction Industry Training Board (ECITB) and Justine Fosh, CEO of Cogent Skills AND Opening Doors: How Employers are Creating Pathways into Skilled Careers for Young People Part 2 By Alison Morris, Director of Policy at Skills Federation; Amina Chowdhury, Policy Officer at Enginuity and Jake Wall, Policy Manager at techUK
Research Careers Will Survive 2030, But Only If We Make The Case For Them By Professor Jonathan Grant and Professor Marco Canini at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)
Our Top 3 Thought Leadership Articles This Week
Why Sustainability Skills Are Becoming Essential Across Every Industry By Helen Maxwell, UK Business Development Manager at NCC Education
Teaching Young People How To Read The Feed By Neil Wolstenholme, Kloodle Chairman
How AI Is Reshaping Entry-Level Marketing, and How to Stand Out in 2026 By Maggie Jones, Director of Qualifications and Partnerships at CIM
What’s New in the World of FE?
Announcements
David Gallagher, NCFE Chief Executive, Passes Away Aged 45 By NCFE
Bridget Phillipson sets out ‘birthplace to workplace’ vision in Ruskin College speech By the Department for Education (DfE)
Reports
Timms Interim Review say any PIP Reform must deal with Rising Claims Among Young People
Awards
Finalists announced for FAB’s 2026 Qualifications & Assessment Excellence Awards By Federation of Awarding Bodies
In The Know
Edge Foundation will be launching the Breaking Barriers Collective report on NEETs on the 21st July. Do you want to join us for an ‘unpacking’ the report live stream at 2.30pm on the 21st July?
By Danny O’Meara, Operations Manager, FE News and